New England Patriots at New York Jets

The Patriots have won eight straight against the Jets at Giants Stadium, and all of those wins have come against the spread, but this year’s game will be closer than the 6.5-point spread indicates. Jets head coach Rex Ryan’s Baltimore defenses gave Tom Brady trouble when they met, and he has the Jets playing with a new belief.

Last week Jets quarterback, Mark Sanchez threw for 272 yards, a touchdown and a pick, but he knows he also has a very good running back in Thomas Jones, who ran for 107 yards and a pair of scores. He’ll be facing a Patriots defense that looked shaky against the Bills. Buffalo averaged almost five yards a carry on the ground against the Pats so the Jets should be able to run on the ball and complete first downs if linebacker, Jerod Mayo does not play. The public always loves taking the Patriots so there I have another reason to like the Jets.

My pick in this game is: Jets +3.5

My final score prediction is:
Patriots- 27
Jets- 24
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Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers

The Ravens look better than they probably are thanks to their cupcake Week 1 match up. However, even if (when?) the offense comes back to Earth, the “D” should remain stellar. If San Diego just scraped by Oakland, it likely isn’t ready to handle Baltimore.

LaDainian Tomlinson is questionable to play as he hobbled off the field after his ineffective Monday performance. Regardless, his success has certainly diminished greatly from what he once was two years ago. He faces a Ravens defense which looked ferocious last week, holding K.C. to 188 yards of offense and recording three sacks.

My pick in this game is: Ravens +3

My final score prediction is:
Ravens- 21
Chargers- 20
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler, the bears quarterback threw four interceptions last week against the Packers, but all of them weren’t entirely his fault. I think he’ll have a decent game at home against a Steelers’ defense without their best player, safety Troy Polamalu. Also the Bears are set at tailback with the versatile, savvy Matt Forte who will help them control the time of possession versus the Steelers. The Steelers running game was completely ineffective against the Titans last week. Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall running and may struggle again, even with Brian Urlacher out for Chicago.

Chicago did a great job getting to Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay last week and Ben Roethlisberger takes sacks as much as any quarterback in the league. So if the Bears pass rush continues to dominate, I think the Steelers will have problems converting third downs and moving the ball much.

The Bears also have a big advantage on special teams. Devin Hester is always a threat returning kicks so I expect Bears to start drives with pretty good field position. At kicker, Chicago is fortunate to have kicker, Robbie Gould who typically is flawless while kicking at home.

My pick in this game is: Bears +3

My final score prediction is:
Steelers- 16
Bears- 20

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

The series between the Tigers and Twins is one of the few still meaningful match ups this weekend in baseball.  The Tigers lead in the American League central is down to only four games over the Twins so this leads me to think the Tigers will lose at least two of three this weekend if not get swept.  Rick Porcello starts at pitcher for the Tigers and has been fairly reliable through out the season but hasn’t gotten much run support on the road.  The Tigers have lost five of his last six games while pitching away from Comerica Park.

Brian Duensing starts for the Twins and has been rather dominant as of late.  Over his past four starts he has pitched twenty six innings and only allowed four runs.  The Tigers lack of offense on the road combined with the recent greatness of Duensing leads me to expect the Tigers scoring no more than two runs on Friday.  Also The Tigers were blown out on Thursday at home while the Twins had the day off.  The Twins bullpen will be rested while the Tigers pen will be tired.

My pick is: Twins -135

My final score prediction is:
Tigers - 2
Twins -5
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Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

The Red Sox are looking to clinch the AL Wildcard as quick as possible and head into the playoff while the Orioles are playing for personal statistics.  Boston’s offense has certainly outperformed the Orioles offense in the second half of the season.  After the All Star break, Boston is slugging .465 while Baltimore is only slugging .419.  Starting at pitcher for the Red Sox on Friday is Clay Buchholz and he’s been dominant recently. Over his past four starts, he’s pitched twenty eight innings and only has allowed five runs. 

Boston has not lost in his previous six starts and I don’t expect them to lose Friday against Baltimore.  Pitching for the Orioles is Jeremy Guthrie and he’s been absolutely atrocious this year against the Red Sox.  In his three previous starts against the divisional rival he has pitched eighteen innings and given up nineteen runs.  Given the starting pitching mismatch, I’ll be backing the road favorite.

My pick is: Red Sox -150

My final score prediction is:
Red Sox - 7
Orioles - 3
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Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

Luke Hochevar will start at pitcher for Kansas City which is great new for new for White Sox fans.  Hochevar has a 6.22 ERA on the year and the Royals have lost in nine straight when he starts.  He has a 7.04 ERA overall after the All Star break and 8.38 ERA while pitching on the road this season.  He’s certifiably terrible and I expect the White Sox to score early in the game and coast to a victory with Mark Buehrle pitching for the home team.  He has love pitching against Kansas City as he holds a 20-8 lifetime record against them.  I don’t think this game will be close; in fact it may be a blowout.

My pick is: White Sox -225

My final score prediction is:
Royals - 2
White Sox - 8


posted 9/17/09 at 11:00pm EST

Indiana Hoosiers at Akron Zips

After coming away with narrow victories over Eastern Kentucky and Western Michigan, Indiana goes on the road Saturday for a match-up with Akron.  Akron has not won a game versus a Big Ten team in over a century of play, so it may be surprising to some people that they they’re a 4.5 favorite to beat Indiana.  I think that the line is justified though taking into account the Hoosiers have had shoddy wins and haven’t exactly played national powerhouses.

In only two games, Indiana has been penalized for 149 yards, which puts them second in the Big Ten for most penalized yards.  Akron’s biggest weapon on offense is wide receiver, Deryn Bowser who accounts for two thirds of their scores so far early in the season.  He’s a big and physical target that can get down the field quick.  I expect the Hoosiers’ secondary to have major difficulty containing him so they may get too physical which will result in some illegal contact calls and pass interference flags.

Akron has been solid against the run in its first two games this season, surrendering only 138 to Penn State and 41 to Morgan State.  That tells me the defensive line and linebackers are staying aggressive and not missing too many tackles.  I think the Hoosiers running game is nothing to get too impressed with so they could have trouble winning the time of possession game.  When I take into consideration that the offensive line has been prone to penalties, they may not be able to convert on 3rd down plays and therefore be forced to punt.  Keep in mind that Akron hasn’t allowed a touchdown in the 2nd half of either of their first two games.   Also Akron has forced five fumbles so if the Hoosiers’ aren’t careful they could get stripped easily.

I also think that Akron will be better rested considering they are coming off a blowout win while Indiana is coming off a win by a late field goal.  Last weekend, Akron’s defense was basically playing part time considering their opponent simply couldn’t get a first down.  In the second half starters were able to chill out on the sidelines, but in Indiana’s game, players were in a tight hard fought battle.

There are many key Hoosiers players that are questionable or probable for their game Saturday which will certainly be a factor in terms of depth and fatigue.  Indiana’s offensive lineman Justin Pagan has been dealing with an ankle injury yet is expected to play, so his mobility or lack there of might be exploited.


Akron’s game was at home last week and is at home this week which means no late travel and gives them ample time to prepare.  Indiana will be on the road which is great news for Akron fans considering the Hoosiers haven’t covered the spread in six of their last seven road game.  I think I’ve made a solid case to stay with the home team in this match up.

My pick on this game is: Akron -4.5

My final score prediction is:
Indiana -13
Akron- 28

posted 9/16/09 at 9:54pm EST

Last week I split my last two ESPN college football blog picks last week with a win on Thursday with Clemson and a loss on Friday with Colorado. The two picks this week are rather solid and should yield a profit.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes

Georgia Tech plays on ESPN for the second consecutive Thursday and hopes to pull off a win as they visit Miami. Although the Yellow Jackets won last week by a field goal with only a minute left in the game, the play by quarterback Josh Nesbitt was atrocious. He had fourteen attempts throwing the ball, completed only three passes, and threw two interceptions. The major reason they managed to win the game was from the solid contributions of their running backs. As a team they ran for a whopping 301 yards and therefore I expect that they will rely greatly on their running game against the Hurricanes.

Last year the Yellow Jackets dominated the Hurricanes, winning 41-23 while rushing for 472 yards. John Lovett was named defensive coordinator in February and brings 18 years of college coaching experience so I expect a better showing by the defense compared to last season’s. Also note that the Hurricanes will have nine days of preparation compared to only six by the Yellow Jackets. Since they’re well aware that the Yellow Jackets have virtually no passing game and an explosive running game it’s easy to guess what they’ll be focusing on for the nine days.

With all the focus on the running game, I do not anticipate a huge number of passing attempts. Both coaches will likely avoid the risky long bombs and settle with attempting to control the battle of time of possession.

My pick is: Under 54.5 combined points

My final score prediction is:
Georgia Tech – 23
Miami -24

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Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs

Boise State has played two games this year and have outscored opponents 67-8. They’ll meet their biggest rival Fresno State and I expect they’ll be using a Friday night nationally televised game to showcase its top ten ranking. Broncos quarterback Kellen Moore is only a sophomore and continues to improve his play. He’s managed to throw for 504 yards, with 5 touchdowns and only 1 interception so I have no reason to expect a poor showing.

I do however expect an abysmal performance by Fresno State quarterback Ryan Colburn. He made costly mistakes late in their loss against Wisconsin throwing three interceptions and failing to convert several 3rd down conversion. I expect more of the same when he plays at home in front of fans that have unrealistic expectations of him. Colburn and the Bulldogs are coming off an overtime loss on the road, while the Broncos are coming off a blowout win at home. With the blowout, Broncos starters were taken out and able to get some rest. Fatigue will certainly be a factor for the Bulldogs especially in the 2nd half.

Boise state opponents have had trouble moving the ball so and I expect that will trend will continue on Friday.

My pick is: Boise State -7

My final score prediction is:
Boise State – 34
Fresno State -17


Posted 9/15/09 at 9:39pm EST

Florida Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals

Adam Wainwright starts for the Cardinals Tuesday night and believe it or not is at the top of many writers list to win the Cy Young Award.  He comes into the game with an 18-7 record with a 2.59 ERA.  It appears his dominance has been even more overwhelming during the pennant race as he has 9-2, 1.81 mark since the All-Star break to his name as well.  Coming into the game against the Marlins, The Cardinals have won seven straight games in which he starts.  Also relevant is his supreme play at Busch Stadium while he’s holding a 1.85 ERA in his starts there this season.

The Cardinals are on top of the National League Central and looking to win the division as quickly as possible.  They will look to continue their recent success against the Marlins as they have won 20 of their last 28 against them.  Sean West will start at pitcher for the Marlins and he certainly has not pitched well on the road this year.  He holds a 6.81 ERA on the road this season and has a whopping 11.57 ERA over his past two starts.  West is a lefty and the Cardinals top hitters have done fairly well of left handed pitchers.  Matt Holiday is batting .366 off lefties and Albert Pujols is batting .328 off lefties.  On paper this match up greatly favors the Cardinals and I think it will as well on the field.

Pick: Cardinals moneyline -225

My final score prediction is:
Marlins- 2
Cardinals- 6

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Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins

The Twins have dominated the Indians this year at the Metrodome.  They have won ten of fourteen while playing at home and should continue to play well on Tuesday when they face Fausto Carmona.  Carmona has a 8.04 ERA on the road this year and holds a 10.80 ERA over his last three starts.  The Indians will be without their best hitter Grady Sizemore who is out with an elbow injury.  Poor pitching and poor offense leads me to suspect the Indians struggles at the Metrodome will most likely continue.

Pick: Twins moneyline -190

My final score prediction is:
Indians- 1
Twins- 5


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Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

The Rockies and Giants are both fighting for the National League Wildcard and I expect a pitcher’s dual Tuesday night.  Ubaldo Jimenez starts for the Rockies and holds a 2.60 ERA after the All Star break. Lifetime he has a 2.43 ERA when facing the Giants.  Barry Zito starts for the Giants and also has pitched great after the All Star break. He holds a 2.34 ERA after the break with a surprising low 1.92 ERA lifetime when facing the Rockies.

The Giants have continued to struggle scoring runs through out this season.  They’re near the bottom statistically in runs scored with only 567 for the season.  I expect a well pitched and low scoring game on Tuesday.

Pick: under 7 combined runs

My final score prediction is:
Rockies- 3
Giants- 2


Posted 9/14/09 at 7:54pm EST

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

In my last SBR blog entry, I provided a spot on outlook of the Lions/Saints game and look to continue success with my Monday night football prediction.

At first glance of the Bills and Patriots match up, I leaned on taking the over on total points scored, however upon further review I think that the under is a fairly safe pick.  Patriots quarterback Tom Brady missed all of last season with a torn MCL and ACL suffered in week one last year.  He’s back this year and expected to play Monday night, but I think his return has inflated the total on the game too much.  Currently the total is 47 at most books. I think it’s too high and I only expect around 40 combined points to be scored.

The Bills signed wide receiver Terrell Owens in the offseason, but he is not the same player he was five years ago.  Owens will be 36 in December which is one reason why the Dallas Cowboys chose to not keep him for the 2009 season.  The Bills have elected to start Trent Edwards at quarterback this season.  Edwards is coming off a year which he played in 14 games but only was able to throw 11 touchdowns and was picked off 10 times.  Unfortunately for Edwards, the Bills’ Pro Bowl running back Marshawn Lynch will not be playing Monday night against the Patriots.  Lynch who has rushed for over 1000 yards in each of his first two seasons in the league has been suspended for violations of the NFL’s personal conduct policy and will miss the team’s first 3 games. 

The Bills fired their offensive coordinator Turk Schonert only a week ago following a preseason where they had a lot of trouble scoring.  The Bills only averaged 14 points per game and at times appeared to be completely dominated.  I think their offense may not be fully prepared and therefore struggle on the road against the Patriots.

The Patriots made a number of moves in the off season on defense.  They’ll be without aging linebackers Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel as well as defensive lineman, Richard Seymour.  Although some may argue they’ll lose the leadership and intangibles of those veterans, they now have a quicker and younger overall defense.  Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has won three super bowls and many consider him a defensive genius so I won’t question his roster decisions.  Also, I expect linebacker, Jerod Mayo to only improve this season following last year’s impressive debut.  Mayo played in every game for New England, recorded 128 tackles, and was named AP Defensive Rookie of the year.

In the past ten games between the Bills and Patriots played in Foxborough, nine have gone under.  I expect that trend to continue when these AFC East divisional rivals meet on Monday night.  In two games last season, the Bills only managed to score 10 points against the Patriots and I have no reason to expect any real change from their offense this year.

Official pick is:
Under 47 combined points at Matchbook

My final score prediction is:
Bills- 9
Patriots - 32

posted at 7:52pm EST

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints -

I advise readers not to bet too much of their cash in week one. It’s a long season and you wouldn’t want to be forced to already have to make another deposit by week 3. With that said I have found one match up which should easily yield a profit to start the season off.

If it weren’t for a few unfortunate breaks in the 2008 season; the New Orleans Saints would have been 12-4 and not 8-8. With some better bounces, the much anticipated improvements on defense, and a much easier schedule, the Saints are ready to get back in the playoffs. They have arguably the best gunslinger going in to the 2009 season with Drew Brees. Brady and Manning are the best quarterbacks in the league based on their body of work, but for an individual game, Brees should never be overlooked.

Brees has plenty of weapons on offense this season. Reggie Bush still has not even reached his potential as a big time playmaker and I expect Brees will want to get the ball to him early against the pathetic Detroit Lions. Also I expect Brees to look for his big and speedy number one option at wide receiver, Marques Colston. Colston actually missed five games last season due to a broken thumb, but has claimed he is in even better shape to start this season than he ever has. I don’t think the Lions have any way of containing Colston and the explosive passing game if the Saints.

Unlike the Saints, the Detroit ions have many question marks on offense. They of course were winless last season and are expected to go with rookie, Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Although the first pick in the draft may have quite a bit of potential, he clearly looked very shaky during the preseason and made a number of mistakes with his reads. If the Lions coaching staff claims their starter is mentally ready and focused then I think they’re not being honest. I believe Stafford certainly will be nervous playing on the road in his first regular season game of the year. Also, note that Detroit gave up 52 sacks last season and on Sunday I expect Saints defensive coordinator Greg Williams to bring a heavy pass rush on the rookie.

The Lions have second year running back Kevin Smith, who certainly has talent but can only do so much with a sub par group at offensive line. If the Lions fall behind early in this game then I doubt they will utilize the running game much as they’re forced to throw the ball. The Lions haven’t covered the spread in nine of their last then games while playing on field turf. They have lost twenty consecutive games as an underdog and they’re a 13.5 point dog on Sunday. Although this may seem like a lot of points in week one of the NFL, I think the Saints will be able to pour it on against the Lions. Stafford will undoubtedly throw at least a couple interceptions which will lead to some quick scores by New Orleans.

My prediction for the score is:
Lions- 10
Saints -38


posted 9/12/09 6:40pm EST

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines

In 2008, Michigan was a lousy 3-9 and Notre Dame was 7-6, which actually was the best season they had in about five years.  Notre Dame head coach, Charlie Weis has much higher hopes this season and is positive they’ll roll over the Wolverines.  He has won a couple super bowls in the NFL as the offensive coordinator with the New England Patriots.  On the flipside Michigan head coach, Rich Rodriguez is over hyped and definitely overpaid based on his track record.  Rodriguez jogs and lifts weights on a regular basis and therefore is in pretty good shape for his age, while Charlie Weis is just the opposite.  He is considerably obese and avoids exercise because he’s just way too occupied scouting teams, watching game film and preparing his football team the best he can all through out the week.  So as I usually do in football wagering, I will put my hard earned money on the team with the fatter head coach.


I think Notre Dame is going to win this game and win it big.  Notre Dame quarterback, Jimmy Clausen threw for 315 yards and four touchdowns in their first game of the season against Nevada.  If his offensive line continue to show improvement, and give him adequate time in the pocket then I expect Notre Dame to be celebrating in the Big House.  Clausen is now a junior and I expect him to play well when NFL scouts surely will be watching.

Also consider that he’ll be facing a secondary that may not be at full strength. Michigan cornerback Boubacar Cissoko is questionable to play with a shoulder injury and safety Junior Hemingway is expected to miss the game with a ailing ankle.  This will probably lead to a secondary that gets tired and is vulnerable to long passing plays by Notre Dame.

Although Michigan freshman quarterback Tate Forcier did perform well in his first game behind center, I think when he faces the Irish on Saturday he’ll probably be very nervous.  If he gets flustered early, he may make poor decisions and end up turning the ball over.  I think in this particular game it’s even more easier for me to bet against the football team with the less experienced quarterback.

The line for this game is set at 3 and sometimes I avoid playing a number like that since I envision a push, which I don’t find satisfying.  I’m really not too worried though because I believe  Notre Dame will win quite easily.  Keep in mind that Notre Dame has covered the spread against Michigan seven of the last ten meetings. And also note that the Fighting Irish have covered the spread in six consecutive games as a road favorite.  This will undoubtedly increase after Saturday’s viscous assault at Michigan.


 If you disagree with my outlook on this game then I don’t really care.  Go ahead and write about it with your fancy computer and email President Barack Obama.  Maybe he’ll make some changes for the better or maybe he won’t. Anyways you degnerate pigs my final score predication is:
Notre Dame-  32
Michigan-  13

Colorado Buffaloes at Toledo Rockets

Colorado, coming off a 17-23 loss to Colorado State visits Toledo in hopes of securing their first win of the season. Toledo also lost their first game, 31-52 to the Purdue Boilermakers. Toledo, under first year head coach Tim Beckham, didn’t look very tough in their first game as they allowed over 300 rushing yards to Purdue. Their defensive line was easily pushed around which created running lane and the linebackers missed tackles all day. If they bring the same effort Friday night against Colorado, they’ll likely come up short again. And keep in mind the Rockets are 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games played in September.

Toledo’s coaches also have plenty of concerns by the play of their offense. Their running back, Morgan Williams will not play as he is serving the final game of his two game suspension. Last season he ran for over 1000 yards and averaged 6.0 yards per carry. His absence means too much of the pressure and workload will be put on the shoulders of their other back, DaJuane Collins. Toledo has a veteran offensive line, however last year it seemed they played very inconsistently. Playing at home could lead to extra motivation, but don’t bet on it with this crew.

Colorado is coached by Dan Hawkins, who has brought over his impressive work ethic which once propelled Boise State to national prominence. He is now in his forth year, but really hasn’t lived up to the expectation and contract he signed. I think the pressure to improve and win more game has definitely grown for him this season. I expect he will attempt to ease the Colorado backing with a win on national television Friday night.

The Colorado fans grew impatient early in their loss and some even chose to boo the team at the end of the first half. Ironically a road game might help a team that experienced little support in their opening game. Scotty McKnight, one of Colorado’s top wide receiver’s last year had to leave their first game early due to a concussion. The good news is he is expected to play Friday night and likely will make so big catches against Toledo. Colorado’s quarterback, Dan Hawkins is in his third year and seems to be improving nicely. He has done a better job of calling key audibles, reading defenses and avoiding turning over the football. In Colorado’s first game they got down early, so Hawkins was forced to go for bigger gambles down the field. They came within striking distance nonetheless and Friday I expect him to continue to make accurate throws.

On defense, Colorado will welcome back safety Patrick Mahnke who missed their first game of the season with a sprained ankle. He was able to practice this week and likely will play which gives the Buffaloes more depth on defense, something it needs against Toledo’s air attack.

I don’t think this game will be a complete blow out, but I do envision Colorado escaping with a victory. My advice to readers is to take the Buffaloes -3.5 but as always use sound bank roll management.

My Final Score Prediction is:
Colorado- 38
Toledo - 28

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

If history teaches us anything, it’s that the Clemson and Georgia Tech tend to play one another close and competitively. Over the last thirteen years the final score between these two ACC rivals has been only five points or less ten of the thirteen games. So I won’t be surprised if this year’s game comes down to a field goal late in the 4th quarter. Coincidently with the trend of close games, the underdog has covered the spread in twelve of the last fourteen meetings.

In their first game of the season Georgia Tech defeated Jacksonville, but unfortunately some players got knocked up. They have a number of men on defense that are listed as either probable or doubtful. I think that certainly will be a deciding factor late in the game when you need strong and physical play pooled with overall team depth. Clemson’s defense on the other hand will be completely prepared to impress on a national level while playing on ESPN. The majority of their defensive starters are juniors and seniors that have serious hopes of playing at a professional level. Combining that with many pro scouts watching means they’ll be showcasing their abilities.

Specifically I think the veteran defense of Clemson is very crucial in limiting the running game of Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are very fortunate to have one of the more prolific running backs in the nation, Jonathan Dwyer. I think it will be interesting to see whether or not Clemson is able to contain him and stop flashy long distance runs. If they do that then the Tigers could definitely upset the top twenty Yellow Jackets.

I feel that home field advantage will not be as much as a factor in recent years. The game is not sold out and tickets are reportedly being purchased by many Clemson fans planning to make the trip to Bobby Dodd Stadium. I expect that the youth of Georgia Tech may be somewhat surprised to experience the wrath of Tiger fans so early in the season.

The forecast is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms during much of Thursday night. I expect the field will be rather muddy and coaches will face poor throwing conditions. I expect coaches to utilize a safe game plan centered on controlling the ball for long drives and avoiding turning the ball over. Clemson Tigers head coach, Dabo Swinney is young and only has eight games under his belt, but many close to the team consider him a great motivator. He served as an assistant coach for the squad five years prior to the promotion. Clemson has covered in sixteen of their last twenty-games as an underdog overall and I expect this trend to continue Thursday night. They may not win straight up against the Yellow Jackets but likely will not fall behind by a large margin. I predict that the final score will be close as it typically is when these two conference rivals meet. Clemson opened as a 4 pt underdog and that has increased to 5.5 at many books.